U.S. GDP rose 2.9% in Q4; Jobless claims fell to the bottom stage since April ’22


All right well let's start out with what's going on with initial jobless claims for the week ending January 23rd 186 000 186 000 that is a new cycle low that's going to take us back to uh April April of uh this year last year 22 and if you look at continuing claims 1.675 million 1.675 million GDP.

2.9 2.9 percent obviously that's a good quarter maybe the last positive quarter that we get with respect to uh growth in the economy and as we start to look at some of the other numbers populating here I see that durable goods is coming in durable goods coming in at up 5.6 up 5.6 percent that is a very strong number now I'm getting the rest of the data.

With regard to GDP on pricing the price index is 2.1 percent 2 point one percent and that is a very good number if you're looking for inflation to come down that comes down from the 2.3 level and the last time we were at a 2.1 level you have to go back to the second quarter of 2020 when it was minus 1.3 and if we look at what the quarter over quarter.

Personal consumption expenditure core is it is under four percent many predicted that it's 3.9 percent 3.9 percent the last time we had a number in that camp was the first quarter of 21 when it was 3.2 and if we look at the final numbers on the uh trade balance minus 90.3 billion that's bigger than anticipated wholesale inventories up 110 much.

Smaller that's a decent preliminary retail inventory is up 0.5 double expectations and we're getting some revisions last month's 190 190 000 on initial jobless claims subtle change to 192 and if we look at the extra Transportation remember durables up 5.6 percent is extremely strong as a matter of fact that is the best number going.

All the way back to the summer of 2020 and if we look at all the internals there you could tell it was Transportation figured in prominently because once you take transportation out 5.6 nose Dives to minus one tenth to one percent if we look at Capital orders non-defense X aircraft to proxy for Capital spending it's down two tenths.

That has been a rather bumpy ride but we've had some solid months down two tenths is not one of them you look at shipments also a very depressed number down four tenths of one percent both of those numbers were predicted both of those numbers were built in both of those numbers are preliminaries and they may change so just a quick recap both.

The pricing issues on the GDP came in less than expected if you look at interest rates they are moving up they're moving up now not you we're up about two or three basis points in a ten the equity markets have dropped a bit uh pre-opening Dow futures uh I think what they're concentrating on most is probably initial claims and continuing.

Claims being on the downside uh I find it hard to believe the Market's going to be too upset with regard to the GDP numbers however the final comment I will make is when you look at the price index it is definitely well below last month's 4.4 3.5 but many were expecting an even lower number Becky and the Gang back to you.

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