He's at the CME in Chicago yes good morning Joe Empire of February read one of the more contemporary numbers we get expected to be minus 18 comes in multiple times better but still a negative sign minus 5.8 minus 5.8 in the rear view mirror minus 32.9 was the weakest since May of 2020 so this is a nice reprieve this would end up being.
The best number since November of last year when it actually was positive now let's go to January retail sales probably the other side of the equation to yesterday's inflation date expecting a headline number up two percent and surprisingly it's better it's up three percent and this is a pretty good number considering four out of the last six.
Months have had negative signs in front of them up three percent is the strongest number that we've had since October which was the last time we had a positive number which was 1.1 if you strip out autos and by the way Autos also uh minus Auto's also negative four out of the last six months expecting out nine tenths of one percent almost triple.
That up two point three percent up two point three percent that is the strongest read boy going all the way back to March of last March of 21 March of 21 so a very good number and if we strip out autos and gas also expect it up 0.9 it was up 2.6 2.6 and that's the best number in that series also since March of 21 and finally the control.
Group which is used for other economic data points up the economic food chain so to speak expected up one percent is up 1.7 percent 1.7 percent is the best since January of last year so let's call it a one-year High retail sales in all forms today is better than expectations actually by quite a distance we see interest rates tenure was it the three.
And three quarters it has moved up a bit a basis point and a half or so so the pre-opening equities have had some volatility in the Dow futures to the downside but they've come back to right about where they were right around 34 000 and this of course has the negative connotations Joe that we hate to talk about bad is good good is bad with.
Regard to the economy but no matter how you slice it you know yesterday's numbers were cooler than expect excuse me hotter than expected but cooler than the last look and today pretty much everywhere you look it is better than expected so pricing pressures still historically by wider than uh one year still higher than most would like and.
The growth going along with it still looks pretty decent though pretty much every Source I have looking at first and second quarter data looking for GDP to be as Steve leesman put it yesterday maybe less than an integer Joe back to you yeah you basis point and a half and I see you actually are right we actually take it out that far I could use a.
Little bit can we get two more decimal places I think would really would really give us more more insight into what's happening Steve leesman joins us now with more how many would you like a few more base a few more decimal points Steve or I think we're good here you mean on GDP no no no I'm not on the bonds I was like a.
3.77241 almost like pie if you go out today look I I don't I don't talk about my investments I don't do much in terms of it but I I like the two year and the six months uh those are you know better than losing your money I gotta say thank you not six nine yeah take it on 470 480 whatever it is but Joe I want to talk.
About the Gap not the clothing store but the gap between the fed and the market which at this moment is at an all-time low of one basis point for the year-end 2023 contract uh we have the fed and the market right on top of each other at 512 precisely so remember there was this 80 Paces point gap between the two where the market was building in Cuts those.
Cuts are gone they're yesterday's news and more interestingly on top of that looking at where the peak funds rate is right now for the it looks like it's the August contract now trading at 529 and I want to give you one other piece of data on top of that I just got to look it up which is the probabilities for the June we're now trading over 50 percent.
Probability that we're between five and a quarter and five and a half now for the June contract so the market actually getting more hawkish than the FED however today's number is important for the following reason yesterday we had only higher inflation than we hoped for today we got higher inflation and better retail sales and I think the story today.
Might be with this big number an upgrade to the GDP Outlook and now this Camp remember you had the soft landing hard Landing Camp there's this new camp called the no Landing camp that we're not going to bring down inflation we're not going to cool the economy I will tell you my knowledge of the FED is that that is not an option the FED will not.
Abide no Landing when it comes to inflation they will abide no Landing if it comes to the economy no recession so that means that this is where the market is trading right now and I'll finish my screen after this it means higher for longer not just high for longer but higher for longer if indeed inflation does not cooperate if I offer the FED a.
Deal three okay three and three three percent nine percent GDP three percent inflation
This document became a bust. Is that this retail sales document and stable labor market a signal of a subtle touchdown or stagflation on fable of this stable recordsdata became entertaining on January and inflation soared 0.5% additionally
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